By According to a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil inventories are likely to experience a third consecutive week of growth, while gasoline and distillate fuel stocks are expected to tighten further due to reduced refinery use.
Based on the average estimate of 10 analysts and traders, commercial crude stockpiles are predicted to increase by 2.8 million barrels, reaching a total of 430.2 million barrels for the week ending on February 9. The range of expectations varies from a build of 1.5 million barrels to 4.7 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories, on the other hand, are expected to decrease by 1 million barrels to reach 250 million barrels, according to the survey. Estimates for gasoline stocks range from a build of 2.5 million barrels to a draw of 2.9 million.
In terms of distillate fuels, mostly diesel, it is projected that stocks will see a fourth consecutive weekly decline, with a decrease of 2.2 million barrels to 125.4 million barrels. Estimates for distillate fuel stocks range from a decrease of 1 million barrels to a draw of 3.2 million barrels.
The survey also forecasts a slight decline in refinery capacity use, with a decrease of a fifth of a percentage point to 82.2%. Forecasts for refinery capacity use range from a 1 percentage-point decline to a 2.5 percentage-point increase. Two analysts did not provide a forecast.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release the official inventory data at 10:30 a.m. EST on Wednesday.
Analyst Predictions
Below are the estimates provided by various analysts for crude oil, gasoline, distillates, and refinery use:
| Analyst | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | | —————————- | ——- | ——– | ———– | ———— | | Again Capital | 1.9 | -1.1 | -1.0 | 0.4 | | Commodity Research Group | 3.7 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -0.8 | | Confluence Investment Management | 4.5 | -2.5 | -3.0 | -1.0 | | DTN | 3.2 | -2.2 | -1.8 | -0.5 | | Excel Futures | 4.7 | -2.9 | -3.1 | -0.3 | | Spartan Capital Securities | 1.6 | 2.5 | -3.2 | n/f | | Mizuho | 3.0 | -0.5 | -3.0 | -1.0 | | Price Futures Group | 2.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.5 | | Ritterbusch and Associates | 1.5 | 2.0 | -2.7 | 2.5 | | Tradition Energy | 1.7 | -2.8 | -2.0 | n/f | | AVERAGE | 2.8 | -1.0 | -2.2 | -0.2 |
Note: Numbers are in millions of barrels, except for refinery use, which is in percentage points.
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