According to a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil inventories and gasoline stocks are anticipated to have increased last week, while there is expected to be a slight draw on distillates from the previous week.
The highly anticipated inventory data from the DOE’s Energy Information Administration will be released at 10:30 a.m. EST on Wednesday. Due to a system update, the EIA did not publish its Weekly Petroleum Status Report last week, and as a result, two weeks’ worth of statistics will be published this week.
Here are the estimated changes in inventories:
Commercial crude stockpiles are expected to be up by 800,000 barrels for the week ending November 10th. Out of eight analysts and traders surveyed, six predict an increase while two predict a decline. The estimated range varies from a build of 2.5 million barrels to a draw of 2 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories are projected to rise by 100,000 barrels, with estimates ranging from an increase of 2.2 million barrels to a decrease of 2.3 million barrels.
Distillate stocks, primarily diesel fuel, are expected to decrease by 800,000 barrels. Forecasts range from a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 1.5 million barrels.
Additionally, refinery use is predicted to have increased by 0.1 percentage point. Forecasts on refinery use range from an increase of 0.6 percentage point to a decline of 0.7 percentage point. Two analysts did not provide a refinery use forecast.
Here are some forecasts from different analysts:
| Analyst | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | | :————————– | :—–: | :——–: | :————-: | :————: | | Again Capital | 1.7 | 1.9 | -1.1 | 0.6 | | DTN | 1.8 | 2.2 | -0.5 | 0.6 | | Excel Futures | 1.8 | 0.9 | -1.1 | -0.7 | | Spartan Capital Securities | -1.8 | -2.3 | -0.7 | n/f | | Mizuho | 1.5 | -1.5 | 1.5 | -0.4 | | Price Futures Group | -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.0 | unch | | Ritterbusch and Associates | 1.0 | 1.0 | -1.5 | 0.5 | | Tradition Energy | 2.5 | 0.5 | -1.0 | n/f | | AVERAGE | 0.8 | 0.1 | -0.8 | 0.1 |
(Note: Numbers are in millions of barrels, except for refinery use which is in percentage points.)
In conclusion, the survey suggests that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories likely increased last week, while distillates experienced a small draw. Refinery use also saw a modest increase.