Nvidia’s stock has experienced significant success this year, primarily due to its dominance in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). However, recent developments have caused the stock to decline, leading investors to question its future trajectory.
When it comes to AI, Nvidia is often the first company that comes to mind. Towards the end of 2022, the company’s stock rallied as investors anticipated that AI would drive its business. These expectations turned into reality, leading to further gains in the stock’s value. However, since reaching its peak on July 18, a curious phenomenon has unfolded—positive news about AI is no longer having the same impact on boosting shares.
For instance, on August 8, Nvidia unveiled its GH200 Grace Hopper Superchip, which represents their next-generation AI technology. Despite this exciting launch, the stock ended the day down 1.7% at $446.64, just above its 50-day moving average of around $429. Then, on Wednesday, the stock dropped 4.7% to $425.54, causing it to break through its 50-day moving average and consequently becoming the S&P 500’s biggest loser without any significant news impacting it.
Should investors be concerned about the future trajectory of Nvidia’s stock? Historical data spanning the past three years implies otherwise. During this period, the stock has fallen below its 50-day moving average on 21 occasions, yet it has averaged an impressive 18% gain over the three months following each occurrence. Furthermore, the stock was lower three months later less than a third of the time, suggesting a high probability of upward movement.
Naturally, this analysis only considers a limited timeframe and historical context that might not be entirely representative of current market conditions. Nonetheless, the evidence suggests that there is no immediate need to panic, especially with Nvidia’s earnings report just two weeks away.